Actual FTA Data

[Ravernoth]

(10-03-2012 03:16 PM)GreatGonzales Wrote:  

(10-03-2012 12:18 PM)CombatEX Wrote:  

(10-03-2012 09:41 AM)Necrocat219 Wrote:  Just throwing it out there, considering that for all players it would have taken from their first 30-100 games to fit into their correct league, there will have been massive win and loss streaks that impact this data. When playing players of higher or lower skill level you were already pretty much guaranteed a win or a loss regardless of going first or second.

That's a great point actually. Think of how many thousands of games have a 50:50 P1 : P2 ratio simply because the players won 100% of their games due to skill discrepancy. Players that go on 50-2 streaks or even longer (many players when trying to get to their correct placement) will skew the results towards 50:50 since they win regardless of P1 or P2 assignment.

Yeah, wow, didn't think of that. I estimate that this would have a large impact on the data if not controlled for. Alex, is it possible for you to control for players who have settled into their league? Perhaps the way to do it is to exclude all matches where players exceed a certain rank differential from the calculation.

Necrocat, I think you've hit on what the rest of us were missing.

The long win streaks and 90%+ records of players slowly rising up the leagues will really skew the FTA figures to 50:50.

Even looking at games since the patch wouldn't remove this problem since there are many players still ranked below their actual skill level and winning most of the time. However it should give a significantly more accurate FTA figure.

Perhaps Fluffy league shows 65% FTA because there are less players in Fluffy with the skill differential to skew the figures?

A question for Alex and Adam: When running the stats for Super Titan league, does it look at:
A) All the games of everyone currently in ST league
or
B) Only ST vs ST games

A) would include older games vs non-STs while rising up the ranks and would be inaccurate.

The best metric would be to only look at:

- Games where both players' skill ratings are close, AND have stabilized.

But since that is probably too complicated, a good approximation to reduce skill mismatches would be to run the figures for:

- Only ST vs ST games since the patch