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+--- Thread: Actual FTA Data (/showthread.php?tid=678)
Actual FTA Data - oneadamleft - 10-03-2012 01:17 AM
We ran the numbers for the live servers last night. Overall, since launch, first player wins 61.5% of the time. For Fluffy leaguers this number goes up to 65%, but for the rest of the leagues it's around 60.5%. Our goal is to get that number as close to 50% as possible, and we're testing some approaches for that in the current beta.
We'd like to thank you guys for bringing the issue to light.
RE: Actual FTA Data - Ravernoth - 10-03-2012 01:25 AM
(10-03-2012 01:17 AM)oneadamleft Wrote: We ran the numbers for the live servers last night. Overall, since launch, first player wins 61.5% of the time. For Fluffy leaguers this number goes up to 65%, but for the rest of the leagues it's around 60.5%. Our goal is to get that number as close to 50% as possible, and we're testing some approaches for that in the current beta.
We'd like to thank you guys for bringing the issue to light.
That's really interesting Adam - that's much lower than what we found in the tournament (72%) and just intuitively.
Can I ask what the ratio is for Super Titans if you wouldn't mind?
RE: Actual FTA Data - vivafringe - 10-03-2012 01:33 AM
Yeah that's a lot lower than I would have guessed. My predictions would have been something like 65% overall and 70% for Super Titans.
RE: Actual FTA Data - GreatGonzales - 10-03-2012 01:35 AM
I also think that number seems low. Probably, if you controlled for SuperTitans, the number would be closer to 70%.
RE: Actual FTA Data - worldfamous - 10-03-2012 01:39 AM
It sounds like he did control for ST and got somewhere around a 60.5. I assume he would've shared if the number was even higher than the fluffy number.
If you can get the number below 55 and randomize FT, I'd be happy with that. Curious what the 2v2 numbers are.
RE: Actual FTA Data - garcia1000 - 10-03-2012 02:20 AM
Thanks for the data! I bet some maps are higher FTA than others.
RE: Actual FTA Data - Riptor - 10-03-2012 02:54 AM
Huh Foundry ?
RE: Actual FTA Data - Harti - 10-03-2012 03:17 AM
Yeah I think you should re-run the analyses for each league I guess. I would be quite astonished if Master and Super-Titan League were also about 60.
RE: Actual FTA Data - Ravernoth - 10-03-2012 03:20 AM
(10-03-2012 03:17 AM)Harti Wrote: Yeah I think you should re-run the analyses for each league I guess. I would be quite astonished if Master and Super-Titan League were also about 60.
(10-03-2012 01:17 AM)oneadamleft Wrote: For Fluffy leaguers this number goes up to 65%, but for the rest of the leagues it's around 60.5%.
Adam seems to imply that Master and ST are pretty close to 60%. Though I'm very surprised too if that's the case.
Can anyone think of a reason why it would be much lower in total league stats than what we've found through the tournament and our own experience?
Edit: These numbers were since launch - could that be the reason? Perhaps FTA has increased as skill has increased?
Wonder what the ST numbers are for the last month?
RE: Actual FTA Data - garcia1000 - 10-03-2012 03:28 AM
One thing that might affect FTA in ST league: often people will queue many games at a time. If I'm 2P, and I find someone for whom there is a sufficient skill difference that I might win some games as 2P, I will "take the queue" and play a lot of games against such person. This could skew the FTA results towards 50%.