Actual FTA Data

***onealexleft*** · 10-03-2012, 05:11 AM

(10-03-2012 04:15 AM)Harti Wrote: Wait a minute. Did you exclude all games with less than 5 or so turns? That'd be booted players. I think it occured much that newbies created 5-20 games and deleted the app after two days.

And if you're proposition is correct? Doesn't really change the gifted+ data. You aren't exactly a new player at this point if you're master+ either.

Gf!sh · 10-03-2012, 05:15 AM

(10-03-2012 05:11 AM)onealexleft Wrote:
(10-03-2012 04:15 AM)Harti Wrote: Wait a minute. Did you exclude all games with less than 5 or so turns? That'd be booted players. I think it occured much that newbies created 5-20 games and deleted the app after two days.

And if you're proposition is correct? Doesn't really change the gifted+ data. You aren't exactly a new player at this point if you're master+ either.

Actually, yes. As described here , you can actually get straight into masters after 5 plays Undecided

Not something that i like that much...

Ravernoth · (This post was last modified: 10-03-2012 05:35 AM by Ravernoth.)

(10-03-2012 04:07 AM)onealexleft Wrote:
(10-03-2012 02:20 AM)garcia1000 Wrote: Thanks for the data! I bet some maps are higher FTA than others.

again, another surprising stat. This wasn't the case. A lot of people think sweetie plains may be the most balanced map, while Foundry and Glitch had the biggest issues.

Foundry indeed did have a higher FTA (63%) while Sweetie had 59.8%. But that's the biggest spread we have across maps. A 3.2% spread. When all your data shows that player 1 is winning on average 10-12% more than they should be across the board, map specific balances don't seem to be as significant right now.

And yes we did this across leagues as well and results were similar on all maps across all leagues: 60-65%.

So we're working to reduce this in the beta at the moment.

Alex, many thanks for working on this, and for creating a brilliant game.

It's definitely surprising data, much lower than we expected and encountered in the tournament.

1.5:1 and 50% advantage for P1 is still large, so it would be great to get this down.

A 10% advantage or 52/48 would be pretty good I think.

Best of luck with the beta testing!

(10-03-2012 05:15 AM)Gfich Wrote:
(10-03-2012 05:11 AM)onealexleft Wrote:
(10-03-2012 04:15 AM)Harti Wrote: Wait a minute. Did you exclude all games with less than 5 or so turns? That'd be booted players. I think it occured much that newbies created 5-20 games and deleted the app after two days.

And if you're proposition is correct? Doesn't really change the gifted+ data. You aren't exactly a new player at this point if you're master+ either.

Actually, yes. As described here , you can actually get straight into masters after 5 plays

Not something that i like that much...

It's true people can skip to Master doing this, but the numbers are very unlikely to affect thousands of results in the aggregate.

Maybe the recent data will be closer to what we expected and explain some of the discrepancy.

Sakiehl · 10-03-2012, 06:30 AM

Why is there so much skepticism here?

Just because it doesn't match the forum's consensus opinion doesn't mean the data isn't valid.

I've always thought that the FTA problem was overstated, so, naturally, the data strikes me as accurate Smile

GreatGonzales · 10-03-2012, 06:43 AM

In any case, it sounds like OML is aware of it and trying to get to P1/P2 win ratio of 50%. That's good enough for me. But it is important that they are using the right metrics.

Ravernoth · (This post was last modified: 10-03-2012 07:14 AM by Ravernoth.)

(10-03-2012 06:30 AM)Sakiehl Wrote: Why is there so much skepticism here?

Just because it doesn't match the forum's consensus opinion doesn't mean the data isn't valid.

I've always thought that the FTA problem was overstated, so, naturally, the data strikes me as accurate

Hey Sakiehl,

Look at your matches in the World Cup:

3 P1 games, 3 wins
3 P2 games, 1 win (which took 90 turns compared to 33 turns to win as P1 against the same player)

Did you really not feel the extent of FTA when playing the same player simultaneously as P1 and P2?

worldfamous · 10-03-2012, 09:10 AM

(10-03-2012 05:15 AM)Gfich Wrote:
(10-03-2012 05:11 AM)onealexleft Wrote:
(10-03-2012 04:15 AM)Harti Wrote: Wait a minute. Did you exclude all games with less than 5 or so turns? That'd be booted players. I think it occured much that newbies created 5-20 games and deleted the app after two days.

And if you're proposition is correct? Doesn't really change the gifted+ data. You aren't exactly a new player at this point if you're master+ either.

Actually, yes. As described here , you can actually get straight into masters after 5 plays

Not something that i like that much...

I was actually put into super titian after my 5 matches. I didn't play for a couple days after and got bumped to masters then gifted after 2 wins. I think I've only lost once since and I'm still in gifted but I don't play much 1v1. Having said that, I doubt that the numbers would skew much if you pulled the few early quitters.

Necrocat219 · 10-03-2012, 09:41 AM

I do really appreciate the release of the data and it's really useful, and to be frank I've been really enjoying the solution we've already been testing.

Just throwing it out there, considering that for all players it would have taken from their first 30-100 games to fit into their correct league, there will have been massive win and loss streaks that impact this data. When playing players of higher or lower skill level you were already pretty much guaranteed a win or a loss regardless of going first or second.

garcia1000 · 10-03-2012, 10:20 AM

thanks for the by-map data!

CombatEX · (This post was last modified: 10-03-2012 12:19 PM by CombatEX.)

(10-03-2012 09:41 AM)Necrocat219 Wrote: Just throwing it out there, considering that for all players it would have taken from their first 30-100 games to fit into their correct league, there will have been massive win and loss streaks that impact this data. When playing players of higher or lower skill level you were already pretty much guaranteed a win or a loss regardless of going first or second.

That's a great point actually. Think of how many thousands of games have a 50:50 P1 : P2 ratio simply because the players won 100% of their games due to skill discrepancy. Players that go on 50-2 streaks or even longer (many players when trying to get to their correct placement) will skew the results towards 50:50 since they win regardless of P1 or P2 assignment.