Alex & Adam - Getting +1 Wit for Kills: Why it's a really poor change to Outwitters

[Ravernoth]

A look at what's wrong with this change:

(ratings out of 10)

[joelduque]

Well illustrated. I liked the bar graphs very much. Thanks for sharing. I would like to know the basis for the figures.

[GreatGonzales]

Where are these numbers coming from Ravernoth?

[Ravernoth]

These are meant as ratings out of 10, not actual download numbers etc - sorry I've clarified that now.

I wanted to put things into a visual format for those who don't want to read through all the text. What I'm trying to get across is that this change does not and cannot address the problems that are causing the poor sales.

[worldfamous]

(10-26-2012 01:47 AM)GreatGonzales Wrote:  Where are these numbers coming from Ravernoth?

I assume the numbers are based on his perception of the issues, as informed by the different articles and blog posts from OML. Correct me if I'm wrong, Ravernoth.

[oneadamleft]

We're glad Ravernoth is enthusiastic enough to do all of this analysis. Sincerely. Here's why we haven't back-pedalled on the kill bonus just yet:

It breaks up stalemates faster by giving the player with more kills more momentum. It allows smart aggressive players to move up reinforcements on their attack run, and smart defensive players more resources to react. It also makes it slightly harder to count wits and predict each other's moves. Making the games less predictable is, in our opinion, more fun. Some of our testers agree with that. Some have not.

Here's the data we've collected from replays provided by our testers so far:

Total games: 63

Overall Averages:
Winner's kill bonus spread: +2 wits (ranging from -5 to +9 wit advantages)
Winner's cap pt bonus spread: +2.25 wits (ranging from -5 to +15 wits)

Special Unit Kill Wit Averages:
Bombshell loses by 0.25 kill wits, wins by 4.8 kill wits*
Scrambler loses by 4.3 kill wits, wins by -1.8 kill wits**
Bramble loses by 2.5 kill wits, wins by 3.8 kill wits
Mobi loses by 0.5 kill wits, wins by 1.3 kill wits***
None loses by 1.5 kill wits, wins by 1.6 kill wits

* Bombshell's highest kill bonus spread was +9, which Bramble also reached. Bramble is used a lot more often, but did reach high kill spreads as many times as Bombshell.

** Scrambling doesn't give a kill wit in the current build.

*** Only 5 replays featured Mobi.

[Gf!sh]

(10-26-2012 03:06 AM)oneadamleft Wrote:  Overall Averages:
Winner's kill bonus spread: +2 wits (ranging from -5 to +9 wit advantages)
Winner's cap pt bonus spread: +2.25 wits (ranging from -5 to +15 wits)

Special Unit Kill Wit Averages:
Bombshell loses by 0.25 kill wits, wins by 4.8 kill wits*
Scrambler loses by 4.3 kill wits, wins by -1.8 kill wits**
Bramble loses by 2.5 kill wits, wins by 3.8 kill wits
Mobi loses by 0.5 kill wits, wins by 1.3 kill wits***
None loses by 1.5 kill wits, wins by 1.6 kill wits

* Bombshell's highest kill bonus spread was +9, which Bramble also reached. Bramble is used a lot more often, but did reach high kill spreads as many times as Bombshell.

** Scrambling doesn't give a kill wit in the current build.

*** Only 5 replays featured Mobi.

What does this mean?

[ArtNJ]

@Adma/Alex: Interesting data, but I dont think it really establishes much of anything. You wouldnt expect the winner to get a ton more +wits on average, as on single spawn maps, getting two extra kills sometimes means game over, eventually. You also have to keep in mind that once its clear that you have a potentially winning attack, you sometimes stop killing enemies and let your opponent "catch up" in kills while you attack their base.

As far as the specials go, that is probably just statistical variation. After all, the Bramble doesnt get "kills" so why would its team come in second? Just chance.

Look, its your game, and you need to try and make it profitable, so I think you are 100% entitled to go with your opinion rather than the majority. I just dont think that this data provides you with the support you might think.

[joelduque]

(10-26-2012 03:06 AM)oneadamleft Wrote:  We're glad Ravernoth is enthusiastic enough to do all of this analysis. Sincerely. Here's why we haven't back-pedalled on the kill bonus just yet:

It breaks up stalemates faster by giving the player with more kills more momentum. It allows smart aggressive players to move up reinforcements on their attack run, and smart defensive players more resources to react. It also makes it slightly harder to count wits and predict each other's moves. Making the games less predictable is, in our opinion, more fun. Some of our testers agree with that. Some have not.

Here's the data we've collected from replays provided by our testers so far:

Total games: 63

Overall Averages:
Winner's kill bonus spread: +2 wits (ranging from -5 to +9 wit advantages)
Winner's cap pt bonus spread: +2.25 wits (ranging from -5 to +15 wits)

Special Unit Kill Wit Averages:
Bombshell loses by 0.25 kill wits, wins by 4.8 kill wits*
Scrambler loses by 4.3 kill wits, wins by -1.8 kill wits**
Bramble loses by 2.5 kill wits, wins by 3.8 kill wits
Mobi loses by 0.5 kill wits, wins by 1.3 kill wits***
None loses by 1.5 kill wits, wins by 1.6 kill wits

* Bombshell's highest kill bonus spread was +9, which Bramble also reached. Bramble is used a lot more often, but did reach high kill spreads as many times as Bombshell.

** Scrambling doesn't give a kill wit in the current build.

*** Only 5 replays featured Mobi.

It would be helpful if there was a table of some sort of the latest stats. I mean total wins by p1 and p2 in league 1v1 across all 5 divisions. Then a breakdown according to teams (Scallywags, Adorables, Feedback). 2v2 data is presumably more complex to analyze or check for balance.

[blckace]

(10-26-2012 03:06 AM)oneadamleft Wrote:  We're glad Ravernoth is enthusiastic enough to do all of this analysis. Sincerely. Here's why we haven't back-pedalled on the kill bonus just yet:

It breaks up stalemates faster by giving the player with more kills more momentum. It allows smart aggressive players to move up reinforcements on their attack run, and smart defensive players more resources to react. It also makes it slightly harder to count wits and predict each other's moves. Making the games less predictable is, in our opinion, more fun. Some of our testers agree with that. Some have not.

Here's the data we've collected from replays provided by our testers so far:

Total games: 63

Overall Averages:
Winner's kill bonus spread: +2 wits (ranging from -5 to +9 wit advantages)
Winner's cap pt bonus spread: +2.25 wits (ranging from -5 to +15 wits)

Special Unit Kill Wit Averages:
Bombshell loses by 0.25 kill wits, wins by 4.8 kill wits*
Scrambler loses by 4.3 kill wits, wins by -1.8 kill wits**
Bramble loses by 2.5 kill wits, wins by 3.8 kill wits
Mobi loses by 0.5 kill wits, wins by 1.3 kill wits***
None loses by 1.5 kill wits, wins by 1.6 kill wits

* Bombshell's highest kill bonus spread was +9, which Bramble also reached. Bramble is used a lot more often, but did reach high kill spreads as many times as Bombshell.

** Scrambling doesn't give a kill wit in the current build.

*** Only 5 replays featured Mobi.

I like idea of making the game more unpredictable but i play almost exclusively the feedback team and in their current state are probably the most affected by this change so it means i either have to change teams to another that doesn't suit my playstyle or less fun for me or quit all together which would suck

Suggestions for the scrambler

Two hp base health without being healable up to three
Scrambling units gives +1 wit
Scrambled units health is 2 hp instead of 1

All three changes seem necessary to make the scrambler a viable special with the +1 wit kill rule