Just a little praise I think OML needs

[vivafringe]

(09-26-2012 12:20 PM)worldfamous Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 07:14 AM)awpertunity Wrote:  

(09-26-2012 04:42 AM)vivafringe Wrote:  The number of tied games where p1 follows a binomial distribution with n = 19, p = 0.5. Our p-value is 0.000729. In other words, if the actual winrate was 0.5, we would only expect a result this unusual 1 out of 1372 times.

How did you get that? I get an even smaller p-value of
0.000364303588866965 for the chances of P1 winning 17/19 or more of the games, or 1 in 2744.

EDIT: Oh nevermind you used a 2-sided test for some reason haha. So mine is exactly half of yours

So, for us laymen, what you're saying is something like, if you flip a coin 19 times there's a 1/1372 chance that it will land on heads 17/19 times? Henceforth, it's unlikely that its a coincidence that P1 won 17/19 times.

There's a 1/1372 chance that if you flip a coin 19 times, you'll get 0,1,2,17,18 or 19 heads. Predictably it's half that chance if you only care about 17, 18 or 19. "This unusual" actually means "this unusual or even more unusual," but people get glossy eyed when I say the second thing.