Last post wins.
07-06-2012, 02:26 AM
Post: #58
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RE: Last post wins.
Continuing with the St. petersburg paradox, because it's super interesting, I wrote a simulator to test my above theory.
Assumptions: You have $10,000 you can play the game with to begin with. It takes exactly 30 seconds to complete the game. You play 8 hours a day, for 30 days. Findings: Betting $3 every game yielded higher results than I expected. I ran 10 separate simulations of 30 days and only once did the player end with less money than starting. On top of that, the first simulation ended with an average gain per day of $2200! Averaging the 10 simulations resulted in making about $121/hr. Betting $4 every game was different. Six of the ten 30 day simulations when bankrupt before the 30 days completed. For the remaining four though, the average money made was about $40/hr. Conclusion: Realistically, hypothetically, unless you've got the bank roll, I wouldn't recommend playing for more than $3 per game, based on my roughly put together simulator, the accuracy of C#'s Random class, my limited testing, and all the mistakes I made and didn't catch. ;] |
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