Streak Rating Question.

[Suobiiellee]

It seems to me that quite often when I do my reveal and it becomes obvious that I am about to win against a higher ranked player that suddenly they stop taking turns and let the game time out.

My question is does this help them? Ie: is your streak counted in order of games started and won or games won. So is it possible to let a game that you know is going to break your streak time out over 4 days in order to not have your streak broken. Admittedly if you did this often you might end up with a losing streak as all the games timed out, but from what I've read being promoted is very hard and requires a crazyily long streak.

It doesn't happen all the time, but there are times when the win becomes obvious that people seem to magically lose interest and stop taking turns when previously they were very active.

[Eijolend]

You may want to check this thread that the devs posted a while ago: A Note On Delaying Losses

[awpertunity]

Being promoted or demoted has nothing to do with streaks. Streaks just in general help increase or decrease your skill rating by a noticeable amount so there's just a better chance you get promoted during the time you are on a streak.

Whether it's better to take the loss ASAP or wait it out depends entirely on the other games you got going on. If you are going to win 4 more games, then it will actually hurt you to wait, as the loss will take more points away from you because your skill has gone up in that time. If on the other hand you lose 4 games before letting the original game time out, that original game will hurt you less because your skill is lower.

The devs actually made a post about this a while back.

[Suobiiellee]

Ah, I couldn't find that post because I searched for Streak in the search box. Thanks for the link and the summary, guys. (Generic usage of guys, I have no idea of gender!)

[Suobiiellee]

Right then. Having read all the posts I can find on delaying losses I still think I see a problem with a system that adds a bonus to streak winning. I could be wrong, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Here's my Maths:

If you gain points onto your hidden value by beating people and you also gain a modifier based on your streak wins then surely timing out games is advantageous due to it not breaking a streaks cumulative points modifier.

So if Bob is winning every game and the more games he wins the higher his streak modifier is his cumulative total will gradually get higher. Therefore if he times out his losing games although he will take a greater loss eventually due to being beaten by people that are now substantially lower then him the streak modifier will counteract this, especially if it's a high modifier.

I realise this is conjecture as the formula is as closely guarded as Google's algorithm, but from what I have read there must be a streak modifier, which also must increase. Hence the greater chance of promotion when on a streak.

[awpertunity]

Where did you see hints about a streak modifier? I don't think such a thing exists...

As I said before, this basically just lets both your points and hidden skill rating "peak" for a moment before you take the losses. Yes, this "peak" is higher and thus you may get promoted because of it, but after taking the losses you may very well be close to getting demoted back.

For simplicity, say player A and B are evenly matched and start 10 games together. Player A has the awpertunity to win 7 of them and will lose 3 of them. For simplicity, let's say at even skill ratings the increase is +10.

If A wins all 7 games then loses the last 3 it becomes
+10, +9, +8, +7, +6, +5, +4, -16, -15, -14 = +4 net gain

as opposed to losing the first 3 then winning the remaining 7 which is
-10, -9, -8, +12, +11, +10, +9, +8, +7, +6 = +36 net gain

So although by winning 7 games straight player A can "peak" at a gain of +49, the losses hit harder because he's perceived by the game to be that much better.


So it turns out it would actually be better to take your losses ASAP and delay your wins

[Suobiiellee]

Your formula doesn't take into account a promotion/demotion threshold. Which there must be, because getting promoted is so very tough. If the needed streak modifier or peak is 49 then player delayer gets promoted, as player non-delayer gets sat in the same place.

I'll go with your peak affecting promotion chance, but that still leaves the issue of someone who is peaking and has a single loss on the horizon. If you need to reach some epic peak in combination with hidden skill rating it's still better to not take that one loss and carry on increasing your peak and thus your promotion chance.

As I said previously I'm not particularly bothered about being promoted. I just adore the tactical nature of a no luck game, but it's irritating to watch my game slots fill up with people who I've done a reveal on and they know they're going to lose. Perhaps they just get pissed off! Perhaps they go for a beer, but have you ever noticed when you mobi a sniper into a key position or reveal that scrambler and then scramble their scramble that suddenly people lose interest?

[awpertunity]

Right, so you may get promoted erroneously, because clearer the player's skill is not actually at that level, and once the losses come in player A may be close to being demoted back.

Getting promoted is not "so very tough", you will only get promoted if you belong in the league above yours, not by simply playing a bunch of games. The more games you play the better the system will be at gauging where your actual skill is, so unless you really start playing at a better level, you will not being promoted. Clearly if this happened, you will tend to go on high win streaks since you are now playing people below your level, and you will eventually get promoted because of that.

If you are having roughly 50% wins and losses in your matches, then you are placed in the correct league. If you start having a higher win percentage, you will eventually get promoted. It is possible to get promoted off of a loss, and it is possible to get demoted after a win. Streaks mean nothing.

[Suobiiellee]

(08-21-2012 08:17 AM)awpertunity Wrote:  Being promoted or demoted has nothing to do with streaks. Streaks just in general help increase or decrease your skill rating by a noticeable amount so there's just a better chance you get promoted during the time you are on a streak

I'm a little confused. You say here that streaks are beneficial to promotion, but then you say later that streaks mean nothing. If they mean nothing then of course this conversation is irrelevant. I'd like to know which it is.

Also you suggest that if you win over 50% of games you should be promoted, this makes sense, but is far from my experience. I generally run at around 75 percent, max streak has been 8, but then I lost a couple. I'm up to 6 on this streak. I'm not saying I deserve to be anywhere than where I am, I'm just a stat junkie. Always have been

[awpertunity]

Sorry if that wasn't clear. I didn't say they are beneficial to promotion, I said it just may SEEM that way because as I showed earlier it lets your skill rating peak higher than it would have otherwise. But in the long run, your skill rating will be where it should be. If you keep winning 75% of your games you WILL get promoted though. There is quite a large distinction between leagues though, so you may need to win 75% of at least 40-50 games before getting promoted. I know a lot of people have posted similar numbers but I will post my history here as well :

I won 4-1 placement matches and got put into the Gifted league.
I then went ~35-4 before getting into masters.
Then ~60-5 before placing into super titan (this is a total of ~100-10).

This does not mean you need higher than 80-90% wins to get into these leagues. But if you are winning a smaller percentage it will probably take longer (more games) before getting promoted. Basically, as long as you are winning more games than you are losing consistently (and your skill gets higher and you play better players, but keep the percentage) you will eventually get promoted. It does take a lot of games though.


Honestly, I am with you though. I love knowing the exact formulas and knowing how things work, so this is all just speculation. I have always forfeited all my games ASAP and let the long term average carry me to where I am. And as I said somewhere in another post, I look at the point the loser of every match I play takes. (From my experience) -12 points means the two players are equally skilled. If you are playing players a league above you and they lose 11 or more points to you on a loss, you are close to a promotion.